**Market-implied odds heavily favor no additional Blue Origin rocket explosion by October 31, reflecting the extended downtime following the May 28, 2026 New Glenn static-fire failure at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36.** That incident, traced to a BE-4 main oxygen valve malfunction, destroyed the vehicle and inflicted major pad damage, suspending all New Glenn operations while repairs and valve retrofits proceed. With the next targeted launch window set for late December 2026 or beyond, no orbital test or flight activities are scheduled in the intervening weeks. New Shepard suborbital missions from Texas have maintained a clean recent record, further limiting near-term risk. Traders are pricing the low probability of an unexpected test or rapid pad recovery before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於11% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
11% 機率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Market-implied odds heavily favor no additional Blue Origin rocket explosion by October 31, reflecting the extended downtime following the May 28, 2026 New Glenn static-fire failure at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36.** That incident, traced to a BE-4 main oxygen valve malfunction, destroyed the vehicle and inflicted major pad damage, suspending all New Glenn operations while repairs and valve retrofits proceed. With the next targeted launch window set for late December 2026 or beyond, no orbital test or flight activities are scheduled in the intervening weeks. New Shepard suborbital missions from Texas have maintained a clean recent record, further limiting near-term risk. Traders are pricing the low probability of an unexpected test or rapid pad recovery before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
交易量
$383結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Market-implied odds heavily favor no additional Blue Origin rocket explosion by October 31, reflecting the extended downtime following the May 28, 2026 New Glenn static-fire failure at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36.** That incident, traced to a BE-4 main oxygen valve malfunction, destroyed the vehicle and inflicted major pad damage, suspending all New Glenn operations while repairs and valve retrofits proceed. With the next targeted launch window set for late December 2026 or beyond, no orbital test or flight activities are scheduled in the intervening weeks. New Shepard suborbital missions from Texas have maintained a clean recent record, further limiting near-term risk. Traders are pricing the low probability of an unexpected test or rapid pad recovery before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$383結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ET**Market-implied odds heavily favor no additional Blue Origin rocket explosion by October 31, reflecting the extended downtime following the May 28, 2026 New Glenn static-fire failure at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36.** That incident, traced to a BE-4 main oxygen valve malfunction, destroyed the vehicle and inflicted major pad damage, suspending all New Glenn operations while repairs and valve retrofits proceed. With the next targeted launch window set for late December 2026 or beyond, no orbital test or flight activities are scheduled in the intervening weeks. New Shepard suborbital missions from Texas have maintained a clean recent record, further limiting near-term risk. Traders are pricing the low probability of an unexpected test or rapid pad recovery before the deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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