The high probability assigned to cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote to hold a separate closed primary with Place Publique instead of participating, alongside La France Insoumise's consistent refusal to join and the withdrawal of candidates including Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy by mid-July. Remaining participants—primarily Les Écologistes, Debout!, and L'Après—lack the breadth needed to sustain a unitary process originally launched in November 2025, with August statements from figures across the left describing the initiative as definitively abandoned. Trader consensus on cancellation aligns with these procedural and participation barriers. A reversal would require an unexpected reversal by the PS or a last-minute expansion of the field before the scheduled October 11 date, both viewed as remote given the established party decisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於已取消 93.0%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$211,048 交易量
$211,048 交易量
2026-10-10
已取消
93%
Marine Tondelier
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
本傑明·盧卡斯-倫迪
<1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
已取消 93.0%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$211,048 交易量
$211,048 交易量
2026-10-10
已取消
$75,335 交易量
93%
Marine Tondelier
$49,788 交易量
1%
François Ruffin
$31,112 交易量
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,369 交易量
1%
本傑明·盧卡斯-倫迪
$4,216 交易量
<1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 交易量
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The high probability assigned to cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote to hold a separate closed primary with Place Publique instead of participating, alongside La France Insoumise's consistent refusal to join and the withdrawal of candidates including Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy by mid-July. Remaining participants—primarily Les Écologistes, Debout!, and L'Après—lack the breadth needed to sustain a unitary process originally launched in November 2025, with August statements from figures across the left describing the initiative as definitively abandoned. Trader consensus on cancellation aligns with these procedural and participation barriers. A reversal would require an unexpected reversal by the PS or a last-minute expansion of the field before the scheduled October 11 date, both viewed as remote given the established party decisions.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$211,048結束日期
2026-10-11市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETThe 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The high probability assigned to cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote to hold a separate closed primary with Place Publique instead of participating, alongside La France Insoumise's consistent refusal to join and the withdrawal of candidates including Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy by mid-July. Remaining participants—primarily Les Écologistes, Debout!, and L'Après—lack the breadth needed to sustain a unitary process originally launched in November 2025, with August statements from figures across the left describing the initiative as definitively abandoned. Trader consensus on cancellation aligns with these procedural and participation barriers. A reversal would require an unexpected reversal by the PS or a last-minute expansion of the field before the scheduled October 11 date, both viewed as remote given the established party decisions.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$211,048結束日期
2026-10-11市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETThe high probability assigned to cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote to hold a separate closed primary with Place Publique instead of participating, alongside La France Insoumise's consistent refusal to join and the withdrawal of candidates including Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy by mid-July. Remaining participants—primarily Les Écologistes, Debout!, and L'Après—lack the breadth needed to sustain a unitary process originally launched in November 2025, with August statements from figures across the left describing the initiative as definitively abandoned. Trader consensus on cancellation aligns with these procedural and participation barriers. A reversal would require an unexpected reversal by the PS or a last-minute expansion of the field before the scheduled October 11 date, both viewed as remote given the established party decisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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