Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 64.7% and 64.5%, driving strong trader consensus toward the 55%+ and 60%+ thresholds for 2026. These gains stem from iterative advances in chain-of-thought reasoning, tool integration, and adaptive scaffolding on the 2,500-question benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities. Competing frontier models from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Meta trail by several points, though rapid progress across the field keeps the 65%+ outcome in play. Upcoming catalysts include further Claude releases or reasoning optimizations before year-end, alongside benchmark updates like HLE-Verified that could shift measured scores. Market-implied odds reflect Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in high-difficulty academic tasks while acknowledging room for competitive catch-up or evaluation changes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$78,799 交易量
2026-12-31
55% 以上
88%
60% 以上
63%
65% 以上
27%
70% 以上
10%
75%+
9%
$78,799 交易量
55% 以上
$16,346 交易量
88%
60% 以上
$34,690 交易量
63%
65% 以上
$23,602 交易量
27%
70% 以上
$3,012 交易量
10%
75%+
$1,149 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 64.7% and 64.5%, driving strong trader consensus toward the 55%+ and 60%+ thresholds for 2026. These gains stem from iterative advances in chain-of-thought reasoning, tool integration, and adaptive scaffolding on the 2,500-question benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities. Competing frontier models from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Meta trail by several points, though rapid progress across the field keeps the 65%+ outcome in play. Upcoming catalysts include further Claude releases or reasoning optimizations before year-end, alongside benchmark updates like HLE-Verified that could shift measured scores. Market-implied odds reflect Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in high-difficulty academic tasks while acknowledging room for competitive catch-up or evaluation changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間： Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
交易量
$78,799結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 64.7% and 64.5%, driving strong trader consensus toward the 55%+ and 60%+ thresholds for 2026. These gains stem from iterative advances in chain-of-thought reasoning, tool integration, and adaptive scaffolding on the 2,500-question benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities. Competing frontier models from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Meta trail by several points, though rapid progress across the field keeps the 65%+ outcome in play. Upcoming catalysts include further Claude releases or reasoning optimizations before year-end, alongside benchmark updates like HLE-Verified that could shift measured scores. Market-implied odds reflect Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in high-difficulty academic tasks while acknowledging room for competitive catch-up or evaluation changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$78,799結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:42 PM ETAnthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants currently lead Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 64.7% and 64.5%, driving strong trader consensus toward the 55%+ and 60%+ thresholds for 2026. These gains stem from iterative advances in chain-of-thought reasoning, tool integration, and adaptive scaffolding on the 2,500-question benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities. Competing frontier models from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Meta trail by several points, though rapid progress across the field keeps the 65%+ outcome in play. Upcoming catalysts include further Claude releases or reasoning optimizations before year-end, alongside benchmark updates like HLE-Verified that could shift measured scores. Market-implied odds reflect Anthropic’s demonstrated edge in high-difficulty academic tasks while acknowledging room for competitive catch-up or evaluation changes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions