Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal prosecution on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces, with a June 2027 trial date set in New York. Defense motions filed in September seek dismissal on sovereign immunity grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 2026, creating substantial uncertainty over whether the case advances. These procedural challenges, combined with potential political negotiations or health-related accommodations for Maduro and his wife, support trader emphasis on no prison time as the leading outcome. Conviction on the core counts could still result in lengthy sentences exceeding 60 years, consistent with the secondary probability, while shorter terms remain possible but less likely given the indictment scope. The distant trial timeline and unresolved immunity issues continue to shape positioning ahead of the November hearing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於馬杜羅監獄時間？
馬杜羅監獄時間？
無需服刑 52%
60+ 36%
少於20年 9.7%
20–40 2.7%
$735,222 交易量
$735,222 交易量
2027-12-30
無需服刑
52%
少於20年
10%
20–40
3%
40–60
1%
60+
36%
無需服刑 52%
60+ 36%
少於20年 9.7%
20–40 2.7%
$735,222 交易量
$735,222 交易量
2027-12-30
無需服刑
$444,008 交易量
52%
少於20年
$112,721 交易量
10%
20–40
$59,993 交易量
3%
40–60
$27,373 交易量
1%
60+
$91,128 交易量
36%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal prosecution on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces, with a June 2027 trial date set in New York. Defense motions filed in September seek dismissal on sovereign immunity grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 2026, creating substantial uncertainty over whether the case advances. These procedural challenges, combined with potential political negotiations or health-related accommodations for Maduro and his wife, support trader emphasis on no prison time as the leading outcome. Conviction on the core counts could still result in lengthy sentences exceeding 60 years, consistent with the secondary probability, while shorter terms remain possible but less likely given the indictment scope. The distant trial timeline and unresolved immunity issues continue to shape positioning ahead of the November hearing.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
交易量
$735,222結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETVenezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal prosecution on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces, with a June 2027 trial date set in New York. Defense motions filed in September seek dismissal on sovereign immunity grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 2026, creating substantial uncertainty over whether the case advances. These procedural challenges, combined with potential political negotiations or health-related accommodations for Maduro and his wife, support trader emphasis on no prison time as the leading outcome. Conviction on the core counts could still result in lengthy sentences exceeding 60 years, consistent with the secondary probability, while shorter terms remain possible but less likely given the indictment scope. The distant trial timeline and unresolved immunity issues continue to shape positioning ahead of the November hearing.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$735,222結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETNicolás Maduro faces U.S. federal prosecution on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces, with a June 2027 trial date set in New York. Defense motions filed in September seek dismissal on sovereign immunity grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 2026, creating substantial uncertainty over whether the case advances. These procedural challenges, combined with potential political negotiations or health-related accommodations for Maduro and his wife, support trader emphasis on no prison time as the leading outcome. Conviction on the core counts could still result in lengthy sentences exceeding 60 years, consistent with the secondary probability, while shorter terms remain possible but less likely given the indictment scope. The distant trial timeline and unresolved immunity issues continue to shape positioning ahead of the November hearing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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