**Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against primary challengers, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Courtney McClain.** The district's Cook PVI of R+11 and Donald Trump's 16.5-point margin there in 2024 establish a strong Republican baseline, reinforced by Timmons' substantial fundraising edge and endorsements. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. This positioning aligns with trader consensus, as the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure limit upside for the minority-party nominee. McClain's uncontested primary and lower fundraising reflect limited resources relative to the incumbent. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking developments such as an unexpected national political wave, a major scandal affecting the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Greenville and Spartanburg counties, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such outcomes improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$42,515 交易量
$42,515 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
92%
民主黨
7%
$42,515 交易量
$42,515 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$19,372 交易量
92%
民主黨
$23,143 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against primary challengers, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Courtney McClain.** The district's Cook PVI of R+11 and Donald Trump's 16.5-point margin there in 2024 establish a strong Republican baseline, reinforced by Timmons' substantial fundraising edge and endorsements. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election.
This positioning aligns with trader consensus, as the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure limit upside for the minority-party nominee. McClain's uncontested primary and lower fundraising reflect limited resources relative to the incumbent.
Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking developments such as an unexpected national political wave, a major scandal affecting the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Greenville and Spartanburg counties, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$42,515結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against primary challengers, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Courtney McClain.** The district's Cook PVI of R+11 and Donald Trump's 16.5-point margin there in 2024 establish a strong Republican baseline, reinforced by Timmons' substantial fundraising edge and endorsements. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election.
This positioning aligns with trader consensus, as the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure limit upside for the minority-party nominee. McClain's uncontested primary and lower fundraising reflect limited resources relative to the incumbent.
Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking developments such as an unexpected national political wave, a major scandal affecting the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Greenville and Spartanburg counties, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$42,515結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET**Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly two-thirds of the vote against primary challengers, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Courtney McClain.** The district's Cook PVI of R+11 and Donald Trump's 16.5-point margin there in 2024 establish a strong Republican baseline, reinforced by Timmons' substantial fundraising edge and endorsements. Nonpartisan ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. This positioning aligns with trader consensus, as the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure limit upside for the minority-party nominee. McClain's uncontested primary and lower fundraising reflect limited resources relative to the incumbent. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking developments such as an unexpected national political wave, a major scandal affecting the Republican nominee, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Greenville and Spartanburg counties, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such outcomes improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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