**Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 statement that he intends to serve “another term” has anchored trader expectations against a 2026 U.S. Supreme Court vacancy.** The court’s two oldest members—Clarence Thomas (78) and Alito (76)—have faced repeated conservative calls to retire while Republicans control the White House and Senate, allowing President Trump a potential fourth appointment. Yet both have signaled continuity: sources close to Thomas indicated no plans to step down in 2026, and Alito directly addressed and dismissed retirement speculation in a Wall Street Journal interview. No health issues, incapacity reports, or formal retirement announcements have surfaced for any of the nine justices. With the current term extending into mid-2027 and the November 2026 midterms potentially shifting Senate control, the absence of confirmed catalysts supports the 83.5% implied probability for “No.”