The Texas U.S. Senate race remains a toss-up in trader consensus, with recent University of Texas polling showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding narrow leads or statistical ties over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton amid 14% undecided voters. Paxton’s May 2026 primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a Trump endorsement, shifted the contest into a more competitive general-election matchup in a state last won by a Democrat in 1988. Talarico’s record fundraising haul—outpacing Paxton by multiples—and external spending targeting the Republican nominee have sustained Democratic consolidation and independent support, while Paxton benefits from the state’s underlying Republican lean and base turnout. Key factors that could widen the margin include further polling consolidation among undecideds, late-cycle campaign events or endorsements, or shifts in voter priorities on issues like the economy and state governance before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$974,157 交易量
$974,157 交易量
2026-11-02
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主黨）
50%
肯·帕克斯頓（共和黨）
49%
$974,157 交易量
$974,157 交易量
2026-11-02
詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主黨）
$445,836 交易量
50%
肯·帕克斯頓（共和黨）
$528,321 交易量
49%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Texas U.S. Senate race remains a toss-up in trader consensus, with recent University of Texas polling showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding narrow leads or statistical ties over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton amid 14% undecided voters. Paxton’s May 2026 primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a Trump endorsement, shifted the contest into a more competitive general-election matchup in a state last won by a Democrat in 1988. Talarico’s record fundraising haul—outpacing Paxton by multiples—and external spending targeting the Republican nominee have sustained Democratic consolidation and independent support, while Paxton benefits from the state’s underlying Republican lean and base turnout. Key factors that could widen the margin include further polling consolidation among undecideds, late-cycle campaign events or endorsements, or shifts in voter priorities on issues like the economy and state governance before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$974,157結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The Texas U.S. Senate race remains a toss-up in trader consensus, with recent University of Texas polling showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding narrow leads or statistical ties over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton amid 14% undecided voters. Paxton’s May 2026 primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a Trump endorsement, shifted the contest into a more competitive general-election matchup in a state last won by a Democrat in 1988. Talarico’s record fundraising haul—outpacing Paxton by multiples—and external spending targeting the Republican nominee have sustained Democratic consolidation and independent support, while Paxton benefits from the state’s underlying Republican lean and base turnout. Key factors that could widen the margin include further polling consolidation among undecideds, late-cycle campaign events or endorsements, or shifts in voter priorities on issues like the economy and state governance before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$974,157結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETThe Texas U.S. Senate race remains a toss-up in trader consensus, with recent University of Texas polling showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holding narrow leads or statistical ties over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton amid 14% undecided voters. Paxton’s May 2026 primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn, aided by a Trump endorsement, shifted the contest into a more competitive general-election matchup in a state last won by a Democrat in 1988. Talarico’s record fundraising haul—outpacing Paxton by multiples—and external spending targeting the Republican nominee have sustained Democratic consolidation and independent support, while Paxton benefits from the state’s underlying Republican lean and base turnout. Key factors that could widen the margin include further polling consolidation among undecideds, late-cycle campaign events or endorsements, or shifts in voter priorities on issues like the economy and state governance before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions