Mary Peltola leads trader consensus in the 2026 Alaska Senate race after topping the August 18 nonpartisan primary with 49.5% to incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%, advancing both to a ranked-choice general election on November 3 alongside minor candidates. Recent late-August polls show a near tie, with Peltola edging Sullivan by 1–2 points in final-round estimates, reflecting her strong name recognition as a former congresswoman, Alaska Native heritage, and emphasis on fisheries management during the September 12 Kodiak debate. Sullivan benefits from incumbency and the state’s Republican lean but faces headwinds from local economic pressures and national attention on Senate control. The market’s 67.5% implied probability for Peltola exceeds current polling averages, consistent with trader assessments of her fundraising edge and crossover appeal under ranked-choice voting.