Apple’s September 9, 2026 “Surprise and Shine” event confirmed a major shift in iPhone release cadence, with only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and new foldable iPhone Duo launching in fall 2026 while the standard iPhone 18 was deliberately omitted. Supply constraints on advanced components, a desire to boost average selling prices, and an expanding lineup of six models prompted the split schedule, pushing the base model, 18e, and Air 2 to spring 2027 alongside an expected A20 chip. Traders are pricing this outcome heavily because Apple’s official event materials and supply-chain reports show no base-model announcements or pre-order windows, and historical patterns indicate the next major hardware reveal window is March or April 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2027-02-28
2027年2月28日
28%
2027年3月31日
71%
2027 年 4 月 30 日
81%
$274 交易量
2027年2月28日
$124 交易量
28%
2027年3月31日
$88 交易量
71%
2027 年 4 月 30 日
$62 交易量
81%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s September 9, 2026 “Surprise and Shine” event confirmed a major shift in iPhone release cadence, with only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and new foldable iPhone Duo launching in fall 2026 while the standard iPhone 18 was deliberately omitted. Supply constraints on advanced components, a desire to boost average selling prices, and an expanding lineup of six models prompted the split schedule, pushing the base model, 18e, and Air 2 to spring 2027 alongside an expected A20 chip. Traders are pricing this outcome heavily because Apple’s official event materials and supply-chain reports show no base-model announcements or pre-order windows, and historical patterns indicate the next major hardware reveal window is March or April 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
交易量
$274结束日期
2027-05-01市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s September 9, 2026 “Surprise and Shine” event confirmed a major shift in iPhone release cadence, with only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and new foldable iPhone Duo launching in fall 2026 while the standard iPhone 18 was deliberately omitted. Supply constraints on advanced components, a desire to boost average selling prices, and an expanding lineup of six models prompted the split schedule, pushing the base model, 18e, and Air 2 to spring 2027 alongside an expected A20 chip. Traders are pricing this outcome heavily because Apple’s official event materials and supply-chain reports show no base-model announcements or pre-order windows, and historical patterns indicate the next major hardware reveal window is March or April 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$274结束日期
2027-05-01市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 5:52 PM ETApple’s September 9, 2026 “Surprise and Shine” event confirmed a major shift in iPhone release cadence, with only the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and new foldable iPhone Duo launching in fall 2026 while the standard iPhone 18 was deliberately omitted. Supply constraints on advanced components, a desire to boost average selling prices, and an expanding lineup of six models prompted the split schedule, pushing the base model, 18e, and Air 2 to spring 2027 alongside an expected A20 chip. Traders are pricing this outcome heavily because Apple’s official event materials and supply-chain reports show no base-model announcements or pre-order windows, and historical patterns indicate the next major hardware reveal window is March or April 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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