Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding position in the California 5th congressional district general election due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and solid-to-safe ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. McClintock secured over 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary, far ahead of Democrat Michael Masuda, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $900,000 raised compared to Masuda's roughly $360,000. These factors align with trader consensus pricing McClintock above 90 percent. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural Republican advantage before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,299 交易量
$15,299 交易量
2026-11-02
汤姆·麦克林托克（共和党）
94%
迈克尔·增田（民主党）
6%
$15,299 交易量
$15,299 交易量
2026-11-02
汤姆·麦克林托克（共和党）
$6,905 交易量
94%
迈克尔·增田（民主党）
$8,394 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding position in the California 5th congressional district general election due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and solid-to-safe ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. McClintock secured over 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary, far ahead of Democrat Michael Masuda, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $900,000 raised compared to Masuda's roughly $360,000. These factors align with trader consensus pricing McClintock above 90 percent. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural Republican advantage before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$15,299结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding position in the California 5th congressional district general election due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and solid-to-safe ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. McClintock secured over 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary, far ahead of Democrat Michael Masuda, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $900,000 raised compared to Masuda's roughly $360,000. These factors align with trader consensus pricing McClintock above 90 percent. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural Republican advantage before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,299结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding position in the California 5th congressional district general election due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and solid-to-safe ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. McClintock secured over 61 percent in the June 2026 top-two primary, far ahead of Democrat Michael Masuda, while maintaining a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $900,000 raised compared to Masuda's roughly $360,000. These factors align with trader consensus pricing McClintock above 90 percent. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district's structural Republican advantage before November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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