Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the CA-26 House race as the Democratic nominee for the open seat vacated by retiring Rep. Julia Brownley. Her strong primary performance, where she captured roughly 41% in a crowded field, combined with endorsements from Brownley and Gov. Gavin Newsom, has solidified trader confidence. The district's Democratic lean—reflected in recent presidential margins and a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+9—along with Irwin's substantial fundraising edge and experience as a state assemblymember, underpin the 94.5% implied probability. Sam Gallucci, the Republican nominee and Oxnard pastor who advanced with about 21%, trails significantly in resources and name recognition. A major unforeseen event such as a late scandal, health crisis, or sharp national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current market consensus before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,175 交易量
$32,175 交易量
2026-11-02
Jacqui Irwin（民主党）
95%
萨姆·加卢奇 (共和党)
6%
$32,175 交易量
$32,175 交易量
2026-11-02
Jacqui Irwin（民主党）
$16,426 交易量
95%
萨姆·加卢奇 (共和党)
$15,749 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the CA-26 House race as the Democratic nominee for the open seat vacated by retiring Rep. Julia Brownley. Her strong primary performance, where she captured roughly 41% in a crowded field, combined with endorsements from Brownley and Gov. Gavin Newsom, has solidified trader confidence. The district's Democratic lean—reflected in recent presidential margins and a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+9—along with Irwin's substantial fundraising edge and experience as a state assemblymember, underpin the 94.5% implied probability. Sam Gallucci, the Republican nominee and Oxnard pastor who advanced with about 21%, trails significantly in resources and name recognition. A major unforeseen event such as a late scandal, health crisis, or sharp national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current market consensus before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$32,175结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the CA-26 House race as the Democratic nominee for the open seat vacated by retiring Rep. Julia Brownley. Her strong primary performance, where she captured roughly 41% in a crowded field, combined with endorsements from Brownley and Gov. Gavin Newsom, has solidified trader confidence. The district's Democratic lean—reflected in recent presidential margins and a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+9—along with Irwin's substantial fundraising edge and experience as a state assemblymember, underpin the 94.5% implied probability. Sam Gallucci, the Republican nominee and Oxnard pastor who advanced with about 21%, trails significantly in resources and name recognition. A major unforeseen event such as a late scandal, health crisis, or sharp national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current market consensus before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,175结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETJacqui Irwin holds a commanding position in the CA-26 House race as the Democratic nominee for the open seat vacated by retiring Rep. Julia Brownley. Her strong primary performance, where she captured roughly 41% in a crowded field, combined with endorsements from Brownley and Gov. Gavin Newsom, has solidified trader confidence. The district's Democratic lean—reflected in recent presidential margins and a Cook Partisan Voter Index around D+9—along with Irwin's substantial fundraising edge and experience as a state assemblymember, underpin the 94.5% implied probability. Sam Gallucci, the Republican nominee and Oxnard pastor who advanced with about 21%, trails significantly in resources and name recognition. A major unforeseen event such as a late scandal, health crisis, or sharp national partisan swing would be required to meaningfully alter the current market consensus before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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