Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican support among Black registered voters ranging from roughly 8% in Pew Research Center surveys to 19% in Echelon Insights data, with party identification at 14% Republican or leaning Republican. This positioning follows 2024 gains that reached 15-20% for the GOP presidential nominee, but subsequent erosion tied to economic pressures including elevated Black unemployment, inflation linked to tariffs and the Iran conflict, and policy shifts such as DEI rollbacks. Traders appear to weigh these factors against historical baselines and the remaining campaign window, pricing the 10-11% and 12-13% bands as the most probable outcomes while assigning lower weight to sub-8% or 14%+ results.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于10–11% 34%
12-13% 21%
8-9% 18%
低于8% 10%
最新
最新
2026-11-06
低于8%
10%
8-9%
18%
10–11%
34%
12-13%
21%
14-15%
9%
16-17%
6%
18%及以上
3%
10–11% 34%
12-13% 21%
8-9% 18%
低于8% 10%
最新
最新
2026-11-06
低于8%
$60 交易量
10%
8-9%
$538 交易量
18%
10–11%
$581 交易量
34%
12-13%
$351 交易量
21%
14-15%
$192 交易量
9%
16-17%
$20 交易量
6%
18%及以上
$91 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican support among Black registered voters ranging from roughly 8% in Pew Research Center surveys to 19% in Echelon Insights data, with party identification at 14% Republican or leaning Republican. This positioning follows 2024 gains that reached 15-20% for the GOP presidential nominee, but subsequent erosion tied to economic pressures including elevated Black unemployment, inflation linked to tariffs and the Iran conflict, and policy shifts such as DEI rollbacks. Traders appear to weigh these factors against historical baselines and the remaining campaign window, pricing the 10-11% and 12-13% bands as the most probable outcomes while assigning lower weight to sub-8% or 14%+ results.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$1,833结束日期
2026-11-07市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican support among Black registered voters ranging from roughly 8% in Pew Research Center surveys to 19% in Echelon Insights data, with party identification at 14% Republican or leaning Republican. This positioning follows 2024 gains that reached 15-20% for the GOP presidential nominee, but subsequent erosion tied to economic pressures including elevated Black unemployment, inflation linked to tariffs and the Iran conflict, and policy shifts such as DEI rollbacks. Traders appear to weigh these factors against historical baselines and the remaining campaign window, pricing the 10-11% and 12-13% bands as the most probable outcomes while assigning lower weight to sub-8% or 14%+ results.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
交易量
$1,833结束日期
2026-11-07市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETRecent polling for the 2026 midterms shows Republican support among Black registered voters ranging from roughly 8% in Pew Research Center surveys to 19% in Echelon Insights data, with party identification at 14% Republican or leaning Republican. This positioning follows 2024 gains that reached 15-20% for the GOP presidential nominee, but subsequent erosion tied to economic pressures including elevated Black unemployment, inflation linked to tariffs and the Iran conflict, and policy shifts such as DEI rollbacks. Traders appear to weigh these factors against historical baselines and the remaining campaign window, pricing the 10-11% and 12-13% bands as the most probable outcomes while assigning lower weight to sub-8% or 14%+ results.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题