Icelandic voters rejected resuming European Union accession negotiations in the August 29-30, 2026 referendum, delivering a 52.8% to 47.2% result against the government proposal with 82.5% turnout. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's centre-left coalition respected the outcome and confirmed that talks will not advance during its term ending in 2028, while parliament may later address formally withdrawing the longstanding 2009 membership application. Traders assign 99.5% probability to the referendum not passing because the vote has already occurred with a decisive margin. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential recounts in close constituencies or future parliamentary actions on the existing application, though these would not alter the referendum result itself. Iceland continues its existing European Economic Area and Schengen arrangements unchanged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
<1% 概率
$221,794 交易量
$221,794 交易量
2026-08-29
是
<1% 概率
$221,794 交易量
$221,794 交易量
2026-08-29
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.Icelandic voters rejected resuming European Union accession negotiations in the August 29-30, 2026 referendum, delivering a 52.8% to 47.2% result against the government proposal with 82.5% turnout. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's centre-left coalition respected the outcome and confirmed that talks will not advance during its term ending in 2028, while parliament may later address formally withdrawing the longstanding 2009 membership application. Traders assign 99.5% probability to the referendum not passing because the vote has already occurred with a decisive margin. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential recounts in close constituencies or future parliamentary actions on the existing application, though these would not alter the referendum result itself. Iceland continues its existing European Economic Area and Schengen arrangements unchanged.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 10, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
交易量
$221,794结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 11:43 AM ETThe Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.Icelandic voters rejected resuming European Union accession negotiations in the August 29-30, 2026 referendum, delivering a 52.8% to 47.2% result against the government proposal with 82.5% turnout. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's centre-left coalition respected the outcome and confirmed that talks will not advance during its term ending in 2028, while parliament may later address formally withdrawing the longstanding 2009 membership application. Traders assign 99.5% probability to the referendum not passing because the vote has already occurred with a decisive margin. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential recounts in close constituencies or future parliamentary actions on the existing application, though these would not alter the referendum result itself. Iceland continues its existing European Economic Area and Schengen arrangements unchanged.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
交易量
$221,794结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 11:43 AM ETIcelandic voters rejected resuming European Union accession negotiations in the August 29-30, 2026 referendum, delivering a 52.8% to 47.2% result against the government proposal with 82.5% turnout. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's centre-left coalition respected the outcome and confirmed that talks will not advance during its term ending in 2028, while parliament may later address formally withdrawing the longstanding 2009 membership application. Traders assign 99.5% probability to the referendum not passing because the vote has already occurred with a decisive margin. Remaining uncertainty stems from potential recounts in close constituencies or future parliamentary actions on the existing application, though these would not alter the referendum result itself. Iceland continues its existing European Economic Area and Schengen arrangements unchanged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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