Iceland's August 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations delivered a clear rejection, with 52.8% voting no against 47.2% yes on an 82.5% turnout, driven primarily by rural voters prioritizing sovereignty over fisheries and rejecting common EU policies on marine resources. The centre-left government, which advanced the non-binding vote amid Arctic security concerns and tariff pressures, has pledged to respect the outcome and will not pursue talks before the 2028 elections, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 99.4% probability against passage. Realistic shifts could arise only from a future parliamentary majority or coalition change reopening the issue after formal withdrawal of the 2009 application, though current institutional signals point to sustained focus on EEA cooperation instead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
<1% 概率
$221,228 交易量
$221,228 交易量
2026-08-29
是
<1% 概率
$221,228 交易量
$221,228 交易量
2026-08-29
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.Iceland's August 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations delivered a clear rejection, with 52.8% voting no against 47.2% yes on an 82.5% turnout, driven primarily by rural voters prioritizing sovereignty over fisheries and rejecting common EU policies on marine resources. The centre-left government, which advanced the non-binding vote amid Arctic security concerns and tariff pressures, has pledged to respect the outcome and will not pursue talks before the 2028 elections, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 99.4% probability against passage. Realistic shifts could arise only from a future parliamentary majority or coalition change reopening the issue after formal withdrawal of the 2009 application, though current institutional signals point to sustained focus on EEA cooperation instead.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 10, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
交易量
$221,228结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 11:43 AM ETThe Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.Iceland's August 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations delivered a clear rejection, with 52.8% voting no against 47.2% yes on an 82.5% turnout, driven primarily by rural voters prioritizing sovereignty over fisheries and rejecting common EU policies on marine resources. The centre-left government, which advanced the non-binding vote amid Arctic security concerns and tariff pressures, has pledged to respect the outcome and will not pursue talks before the 2028 elections, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 99.4% probability against passage. Realistic shifts could arise only from a future parliamentary majority or coalition change reopening the issue after formal withdrawal of the 2009 application, though current institutional signals point to sustained focus on EEA cooperation instead.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is a ballot referendum in which voters will be asked whether Iceland should restart membership negotiations with the European Union. This referendum is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. You can find more information about the referendum here: https://government.is/topics/foreign-affairs/iceland-in-europe/referendum/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iceland passes this referendum. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the election is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to "no" if no qualifying referendum vote is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if such a referendum is scheduled to be held later than such date.
The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the National Electoral Commission of Iceland. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
交易量
$221,228结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 11:43 AM ETIceland's August 2026 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations delivered a clear rejection, with 52.8% voting no against 47.2% yes on an 82.5% turnout, driven primarily by rural voters prioritizing sovereignty over fisheries and rejecting common EU policies on marine resources. The centre-left government, which advanced the non-binding vote amid Arctic security concerns and tariff pressures, has pledged to respect the outcome and will not pursue talks before the 2028 elections, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 99.4% probability against passage. Realistic shifts could arise only from a future parliamentary majority or coalition change reopening the issue after formal withdrawal of the 2009 application, though current institutional signals point to sustained focus on EEA cooperation instead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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