Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding lead in the Illinois 6th Congressional District race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in recent cycles, combined with his established incumbency advantages. Casten secured his party’s nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti advanced with over 82 percent in her contest; both faceoffs represent a rematch of the 2024 general election, which Casten won by more than eight points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, citing limited crossover appeal for the challenger and Casten’s substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election. Late developments such as national economic shifts or unforeseen candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$43,182 交易量
$43,182 交易量
2026-11-03
肖恩·卡斯滕（民主党）
96%
尼基·孔福提（共和党）
2%
$43,182 交易量
$43,182 交易量
2026-11-03
肖恩·卡斯滕（民主党）
$19,994 交易量
96%
尼基·孔福提（共和党）
$23,188 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding lead in the Illinois 6th Congressional District race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in recent cycles, combined with his established incumbency advantages. Casten secured his party’s nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti advanced with over 82 percent in her contest; both faceoffs represent a rematch of the 2024 general election, which Casten won by more than eight points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, citing limited crossover appeal for the challenger and Casten’s substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election. Late developments such as national economic shifts or unforeseen candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$43,182结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding lead in the Illinois 6th Congressional District race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in recent cycles, combined with his established incumbency advantages. Casten secured his party’s nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti advanced with over 82 percent in her contest; both faceoffs represent a rematch of the 2024 general election, which Casten won by more than eight points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, citing limited crossover appeal for the challenger and Casten’s substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election. Late developments such as national economic shifts or unforeseen candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$43,182结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding lead in the Illinois 6th Congressional District race due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in recent cycles, combined with his established incumbency advantages. Casten secured his party’s nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti advanced with over 82 percent in her contest; both faceoffs represent a rematch of the 2024 general election, which Casten won by more than eight points. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, citing limited crossover appeal for the challenger and Casten’s substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election. Late developments such as national economic shifts or unforeseen candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap in the final weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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