**Recent polling and party actions indicate low likelihood of a Likud-RZP joint list.** As of late August 2026, multiple surveys project Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing overlapping religious-nationalist voters. RZP independently finalized its primary slate in July and faces no reported negotiations for a merged ticket with Likud. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged right-wing unity, particularly between RZP and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, but Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright. Likud has discussed possible reserved slots for Smotrich or surplus-vote deals rather than a full joint list, consistent with past patterns of technical alliances rather than mergers. With the October 27 election approaching and no formal merger announcements, traders view a combined Likud-RZP list as improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
13% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
是
13% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-07
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Recent polling and party actions indicate low likelihood of a Likud-RZP joint list.** As of late August 2026, multiple surveys project Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing overlapping religious-nationalist voters. RZP independently finalized its primary slate in July and faces no reported negotiations for a merged ticket with Likud. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged right-wing unity, particularly between RZP and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, but Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright. Likud has discussed possible reserved slots for Smotrich or surplus-vote deals rather than a full joint list, consistent with past patterns of technical alliances rather than mergers. With the October 27 election approaching and no formal merger announcements, traders view a combined Likud-RZP list as improbable.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
市场开放时间： Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$527结束日期
2026-09-07市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETElections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Recent polling and party actions indicate low likelihood of a Likud-RZP joint list.** As of late August 2026, multiple surveys project Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing overlapping religious-nationalist voters. RZP independently finalized its primary slate in July and faces no reported negotiations for a merged ticket with Likud. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged right-wing unity, particularly between RZP and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, but Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright. Likud has discussed possible reserved slots for Smotrich or surplus-vote deals rather than a full joint list, consistent with past patterns of technical alliances rather than mergers. With the October 27 election approaching and no formal merger announcements, traders view a combined Likud-RZP list as improbable.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
交易量
$527结束日期
2026-09-07市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET**Recent polling and party actions indicate low likelihood of a Likud-RZP joint list.** As of late August 2026, multiple surveys project Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing overlapping religious-nationalist voters. RZP independently finalized its primary slate in July and faces no reported negotiations for a merged ticket with Likud. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged right-wing unity, particularly between RZP and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, but Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright. Likud has discussed possible reserved slots for Smotrich or surplus-vote deals rather than a full joint list, consistent with past patterns of technical alliances rather than mergers. With the October 27 election approaching and no formal merger announcements, traders view a combined Likud-RZP list as improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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