Frank Scarpitti maintains a commanding position in the 2026 Markham mayoral market as the long-serving incumbent first elected in 2006 and re-elected multiple times, most recently with 64 percent in 2022. Nominations closed in late August with only two challengers—Martin Ross, who drew attention from a local backyard rink dispute, and Stephen Edgell—creating a limited field for the October 16–26 online vote. Scarpitti’s recent actions, including tabling the city’s 2026 budget and public visibility events, have reinforced his profile ahead of the contest. Traders assign the other listed candidates negligible implied probability, consistent with the structural advantages of incumbency in this municipal race. A late scandal, health event, or unexpectedly effective challenge could still alter the outcome before voting concludes.