The closely matched probabilities around 1.9M–2.1M votes in the Oregon U.S. Senate general election reflect trader focus on midterm turnout patterns in a state with all-mail voting and roughly 3.07 million active registered voters. The May 2026 primary set a record 41.87% turnout driven by a contentious gas tax referendum that boosted unaffiliated participation, providing a recent baseline. With the Senate contest rated safe Democratic for incumbent Jeff Merkley and the gubernatorial race showing narrow polling margins near a toss-up, overall interest hinges on down-ballot competitiveness, Republican mobilization efforts, and any late ballot measures. Historical midterm rates near 62% and presidential-year highs above 70% frame the current range, while factors such as early ballot returns and national conditions could shift totals within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于190万-200万 38.8%
200万-210万 34%
180万-190万 13%
210万-220万 12%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于1.5M
<1%
150万-160万
1%
160万-170万
<1%
170万-180万
6%
180万-190万
13%
190万-200万
39%
200万-210万
34%
210万-220万
12%
220万+
3%
190万-200万 38.8%
200万-210万 34%
180万-190万 13%
210万-220万 12%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
少于1.5M
$622 交易量
<1%
150万-160万
$567 交易量
1%
160万-170万
$531 交易量
<1%
170万-180万
$1,705 交易量
6%
180万-190万
$834 交易量
13%
190万-200万
$1,167 交易量
39%
200万-210万
$1,483 交易量
34%
210万-220万
$788 交易量
12%
220万+
$1,329 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities around 1.9M–2.1M votes in the Oregon U.S. Senate general election reflect trader focus on midterm turnout patterns in a state with all-mail voting and roughly 3.07 million active registered voters. The May 2026 primary set a record 41.87% turnout driven by a contentious gas tax referendum that boosted unaffiliated participation, providing a recent baseline. With the Senate contest rated safe Democratic for incumbent Jeff Merkley and the gubernatorial race showing narrow polling margins near a toss-up, overall interest hinges on down-ballot competitiveness, Republican mobilization efforts, and any late ballot measures. Historical midterm rates near 62% and presidential-year highs above 70% frame the current range, while factors such as early ballot returns and national conditions could shift totals within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
交易量
$9,027结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities around 1.9M–2.1M votes in the Oregon U.S. Senate general election reflect trader focus on midterm turnout patterns in a state with all-mail voting and roughly 3.07 million active registered voters. The May 2026 primary set a record 41.87% turnout driven by a contentious gas tax referendum that boosted unaffiliated participation, providing a recent baseline. With the Senate contest rated safe Democratic for incumbent Jeff Merkley and the gubernatorial race showing narrow polling margins near a toss-up, overall interest hinges on down-ballot competitiveness, Republican mobilization efforts, and any late ballot measures. Historical midterm rates near 62% and presidential-year highs above 70% frame the current range, while factors such as early ballot returns and national conditions could shift totals within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$9,027结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETThe closely matched probabilities around 1.9M–2.1M votes in the Oregon U.S. Senate general election reflect trader focus on midterm turnout patterns in a state with all-mail voting and roughly 3.07 million active registered voters. The May 2026 primary set a record 41.87% turnout driven by a contentious gas tax referendum that boosted unaffiliated participation, providing a recent baseline. With the Senate contest rated safe Democratic for incumbent Jeff Merkley and the gubernatorial race showing narrow polling margins near a toss-up, overall interest hinges on down-ballot competitiveness, Republican mobilization efforts, and any late ballot measures. Historical midterm rates near 62% and presidential-year highs above 70% frame the current range, while factors such as early ballot returns and national conditions could shift totals within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题