Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this September cadence for years, with the iPhone 17 series having shipped in 2025 and next-generation models already in advanced development and supply-chain preparation. No credible reports indicate a skipped cycle, major redesign delays, or production halts as of mid-September 2026. While extreme supply-chain disruptions, regulatory blocks on key components, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent and ongoing component sourcing make such outcomes highly improbable in the current environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
>99% 概率
$251,958 交易量
$251,958 交易量
2026-12-31
是
>99% 概率
$251,958 交易量
$251,958 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this September cadence for years, with the iPhone 17 series having shipped in 2025 and next-generation models already in advanced development and supply-chain preparation. No credible reports indicate a skipped cycle, major redesign delays, or production halts as of mid-September 2026. While extreme supply-chain disruptions, regulatory blocks on key components, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent and ongoing component sourcing make such outcomes highly improbable in the current environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$251,958结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this September cadence for years, with the iPhone 17 series having shipped in 2025 and next-generation models already in advanced development and supply-chain preparation. No credible reports indicate a skipped cycle, major redesign delays, or production halts as of mid-September 2026. While extreme supply-chain disruptions, regulatory blocks on key components, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent and ongoing component sourcing make such outcomes highly improbable in the current environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$251,958结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETApple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained this September cadence for years, with the iPhone 17 series having shipped in 2025 and next-generation models already in advanced development and supply-chain preparation. No credible reports indicate a skipped cycle, major redesign delays, or production halts as of mid-September 2026. While extreme supply-chain disruptions, regulatory blocks on key components, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent and ongoing component sourcing make such outcomes highly improbable in the current environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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