**Trader sentiment favors "Under" at 64.5% implied probability primarily because modern Pikachu ex chase cards from recent sets like Surging Sparks and Ascended Heroes have stabilized well below the $1,059.87 threshold after initial release hype.** Raw Near Mint copies of standout variants currently trade in the $250–$350 range, with 7-day moves showing modest declines (e.g., one Surging Sparks hyper rare at $101.66, down 3%). PSA 10 graded examples sit around $870–$1,370 depending on the specific card and set, but lack sustained upward momentum into September. Broader market dynamics include ample supply from large modern print runs, cooling post-release demand, and no major catalysts such as new set launches, strong sales data, or collector events in the final weeks of August. Historical patterns for Scarlet & Violet-era SIRs show early spikes followed by correction and stabilization rather than continued appreciation. With roughly 30 days until resolution and no evident tailwinds, traders see the price settling comfortably under the line absent an unexpected surge in secondary-market activity.