**The 93% implied probability that H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act or SAVE America Act) will not be signed into law in 2026 reflects the bill’s repeated failure to clear the Senate and the narrow remaining legislative window before the November midterms.** The House passed versions of the measure requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration and photo ID to vote—first in April 2025 (220-208) and again in February 2026 (218-213). Multiple Senate attempts to advance it, including as amendments to appropriations, the NDAA, and reconciliation packages, have fallen short. Key votes, such as a June 2026 amendment, ended 48-50 after four Republicans joined Democrats in opposition. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated there is no immediate plan to bring the bill to the floor, citing insufficient support to reach the 60-vote filibuster threshold or to change Senate rules. President Trump has publicly pressured Congress to prioritize the legislation, at one point conditioning action on other bills, but these efforts have not produced a viable path forward. With Congress focused on must-pass funding measures and the session nearing its end, no recent procedural breakthroughs or vote-count shifts have altered the outlook. Traders therefore view enactment in 2026 as highly unlikely absent an unforeseen change in Senate dynamics or an extraordinary procedural maneuver.