Ongoing limited strikes and a war of attrition between the United States and Iran, marked by missile exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. sanctions pressure, have shaped trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before 2027. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding collapsed amid renewed clashes, yet both sides have pursued intermittent diplomacy through mediators, with President Trump recently claiming direct contacts and weighing options short of ground operations. U.S. military costs have exceeded $38 billion, with no deployment of ground troops despite earlier threats, while public opposition and midterm election pressures favor de-escalation or targeted actions over large-scale invasion. This pattern of air and naval engagements, combined with stalled nuclear talks and regional mediation efforts, underpins the 84.5% implied probability that traders assign to no invasion occurring.