A rapidly strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecast to peak near record levels by late 2026, provides the main upward pressure on September global mean surface temperatures relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Early September observations combined with ensemble forecasts indicate the month is tracking toward one of the warmest Septembers on record, yet the precise anomaly remains sensitive to short-term atmospheric variability, ocean heat uptake, and the exact timing of ENSO-driven warming that typically lags peak sea-surface temperatures by several months. Official monitoring from NOAA and dynamical models show wide uncertainty ranges that overlap multiple 0.05°C bins around 1.3–1.5°C, explaining the near-even market-implied odds as traders weigh confirmed El Niño intensification against the inherent spread in monthly realizations and potential moderating influences from other climate modes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.49ºC 50%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
নতুন
নতুন
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC 50%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
নতুন
নতুন
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecast to peak near record levels by late 2026, provides the main upward pressure on September global mean surface temperatures relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Early September observations combined with ensemble forecasts indicate the month is tracking toward one of the warmest Septembers on record, yet the precise anomaly remains sensitive to short-term atmospheric variability, ocean heat uptake, and the exact timing of ENSO-driven warming that typically lags peak sea-surface temperatures by several months. Official monitoring from NOAA and dynamical models show wide uncertainty ranges that overlap multiple 0.05°C bins around 1.3–1.5°C, explaining the near-even market-implied odds as traders weigh confirmed El Niño intensification against the inherent spread in monthly realizations and potential moderating influences from other climate modes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Oct 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecast to peak near record levels by late 2026, provides the main upward pressure on September global mean surface temperatures relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Early September observations combined with ensemble forecasts indicate the month is tracking toward one of the warmest Septembers on record, yet the precise anomaly remains sensitive to short-term atmospheric variability, ocean heat uptake, and the exact timing of ENSO-driven warming that typically lags peak sea-surface temperatures by several months. Official monitoring from NOAA and dynamical models show wide uncertainty ranges that overlap multiple 0.05°C bins around 1.3–1.5°C, explaining the near-even market-implied odds as traders weigh confirmed El Niño intensification against the inherent spread in monthly realizations and potential moderating influences from other climate modes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Oct 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and forecast to peak near record levels by late 2026, provides the main upward pressure on September global mean surface temperatures relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Early September observations combined with ensemble forecasts indicate the month is tracking toward one of the warmest Septembers on record, yet the precise anomaly remains sensitive to short-term atmospheric variability, ocean heat uptake, and the exact timing of ENSO-driven warming that typically lags peak sea-surface temperatures by several months. Official monitoring from NOAA and dynamical models show wide uncertainty ranges that overlap multiple 0.05°C bins around 1.3–1.5°C, explaining the near-even market-implied odds as traders weigh confirmed El Niño intensification against the inherent spread in monthly realizations and potential moderating influences from other climate modes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা