**Strong model consensus and observed rapid intensification drive the 93.5% market-implied odds of a super El Niño this winter.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño already present with July Niño-3.4 anomalies near +1.4–2.0°C and eastern Pacific values exceeding +2.0–3.0°C; subsurface warmth and westerly wind anomalies continue fueling growth. Multi-model ensembles (IRI, GFDL SPEAR, NMME) place a very strong event (Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) at >90% probability for fall/winter 2026-27, with a 69% chance the October–December Relative Oceanic Niño Index exceeds all prior events since 1950. Peak timing aligns with November–January. Realistic challenges include narrower ensemble tails allowing a merely strong (not record) outcome, evolving definitions between traditional and relative indices, or faster-than-expected spring decay. Monthly CPC updates and weekly SST observations will provide the next key signals.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
93% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Mar 31, 2027
93% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.**Strong model consensus and observed rapid intensification drive the 93.5% market-implied odds of a super El Niño this winter.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño already present with July Niño-3.4 anomalies near +1.4–2.0°C and eastern Pacific values exceeding +2.0–3.0°C; subsurface warmth and westerly wind anomalies continue fueling growth. Multi-model ensembles (IRI, GFDL SPEAR, NMME) place a very strong event (Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) at >90% probability for fall/winter 2026-27, with a 69% chance the October–December Relative Oceanic Niño Index exceeds all prior events since 1950. Peak timing aligns with November–January. Realistic challenges include narrower ensemble tails allowing a merely strong (not record) outcome, evolving definitions between traditional and relative indices, or faster-than-expected spring decay. Monthly CPC updates and weekly SST observations will provide the next key signals.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
ভলিউম
$7,424শেষ তারিখ
Apr 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.**Strong model consensus and observed rapid intensification drive the 93.5% market-implied odds of a super El Niño this winter.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño already present with July Niño-3.4 anomalies near +1.4–2.0°C and eastern Pacific values exceeding +2.0–3.0°C; subsurface warmth and westerly wind anomalies continue fueling growth. Multi-model ensembles (IRI, GFDL SPEAR, NMME) place a very strong event (Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) at >90% probability for fall/winter 2026-27, with a 69% chance the October–December Relative Oceanic Niño Index exceeds all prior events since 1950. Peak timing aligns with November–January. Realistic challenges include narrower ensemble tails allowing a merely strong (not record) outcome, evolving definitions between traditional and relative indices, or faster-than-expected spring decay. Monthly CPC updates and weekly SST observations will provide the next key signals.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
ভলিউম
$7,424শেষ তারিখ
Apr 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...**Strong model consensus and observed rapid intensification drive the 93.5% market-implied odds of a super El Niño this winter.** NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports El Niño already present with July Niño-3.4 anomalies near +1.4–2.0°C and eastern Pacific values exceeding +2.0–3.0°C; subsurface warmth and westerly wind anomalies continue fueling growth. Multi-model ensembles (IRI, GFDL SPEAR, NMME) place a very strong event (Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) at >90% probability for fall/winter 2026-27, with a 69% chance the October–December Relative Oceanic Niño Index exceeds all prior events since 1950. Peak timing aligns with November–January. Realistic challenges include narrower ensemble tails allowing a merely strong (not record) outcome, evolving definitions between traditional and relative indices, or faster-than-expected spring decay. Monthly CPC updates and weekly SST observations will provide the next key signals.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা