President Trump’s April 2026 budget request for $152 million to begin converting Alcatraz Island into a federal prison has not advanced beyond the proposal stage, with Congress treating the item as non-binding and no transfer of authority from the National Park Service or construction contracts reported. Major barriers persist, including the island’s lack of utilities, high restoration costs estimated in the billions, and local opposition, making any operational reopening by December 31, 2026, structurally implausible. Traders’ near-certain “No” pricing reflects these timelines and the absence of concrete steps since the initial 2025 directive. Late-session emergency appropriations or accelerated agency action remain the only narrow paths that could theoretically alter the outcome before year-end, though both face steep procedural and physical constraints.