Recent developments in the US-Iran conflict, which escalated with major airstrikes beginning in February 2026 and continued through intermittent exchanges into August, center on aerial operations, missile strikes, naval blockades, and sanctions rather than ground forces. The Trump administration has shifted emphasis to "Operation Economic Outcast" and diplomatic pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and constrain Iran's nuclear and missile programs, following the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding. Military planners have discussed limited options such as island raids or special operations but repeatedly signaled that a large-scale ground invasion lacks feasibility, congressional support, and strategic backing amid high costs and Iranian defensive capabilities. Trader consensus at 84.5% for no invasion before 2027 reflects this pattern of calibrated escalation short of boots-on-the-ground commitment.