Recent observational data from datasets like ERA5 confirm August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface temperature anomaly near 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content and a rapidly strengthening El Niño. This evidence, alongside July 2026 readings exceeding 1.5°C in multiple analyses and consistent model consensus on ENSO-driven warming, underpins the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for the 1.38–1.41°C bin. Final agency releases from NOAA, NASA, or Copernicus in coming weeks could introduce minor revisions due to dataset differences or measurement uncertainties, though historical patterns and current conditions make substantial shifts unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAugust 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC) (HÖHERE STREIKS)
August 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC) (HÖHERE STREIKS)
1.38–1.41ºC 99.0%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.3%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,711 Vol.
$20,711 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
1%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 99.0%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.3%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,711 Vol.
$20,711 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,134 Vol.
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,676 Vol.
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,252 Vol.
1%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from datasets like ERA5 confirm August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface temperature anomaly near 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content and a rapidly strengthening El Niño. This evidence, alongside July 2026 readings exceeding 1.5°C in multiple analyses and consistent model consensus on ENSO-driven warming, underpins the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for the 1.38–1.41°C bin. Final agency releases from NOAA, NASA, or Copernicus in coming weeks could introduce minor revisions due to dataset differences or measurement uncertainties, though historical patterns and current conditions make substantial shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volumen
$20,711Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from datasets like ERA5 confirm August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface temperature anomaly near 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content and a rapidly strengthening El Niño. This evidence, alongside July 2026 readings exceeding 1.5°C in multiple analyses and consistent model consensus on ENSO-driven warming, underpins the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for the 1.38–1.41°C bin. Final agency releases from NOAA, NASA, or Copernicus in coming weeks could introduce minor revisions due to dataset differences or measurement uncertainties, though historical patterns and current conditions make substantial shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$20,711Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from datasets like ERA5 confirm August 2026 as the warmest August on record, with a global surface temperature anomaly near 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels amid record ocean heat content and a rapidly strengthening El Niño. This evidence, alongside July 2026 readings exceeding 1.5°C in multiple analyses and consistent model consensus on ENSO-driven warming, underpins the market's overwhelming 99% implied probability for the 1.38–1.41°C bin. Final agency releases from NOAA, NASA, or Copernicus in coming weeks could introduce minor revisions due to dataset differences or measurement uncertainties, though historical patterns and current conditions make substantial shifts unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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