Strong global surveillance systems and containment measures underpin the 94.5% market-implied probability against a new pandemic in 2026. The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, caused by the Bundibugyo strain and declared a public health emergency of international concern by the WHO in May, has exceeded 7,000 cases with declining transmission in key provinces like Ituri, though North Kivu shows recent increases. Similar moderate-risk classifications apply to multi-country mpox circulation, with no evidence of sustained, high-transmissibility variants or rapid international escalation. Historical patterns show most outbreaks remain localized due to contact tracing, vaccination campaigns, and early detection. Realistic challenges include viral mutations boosting airborne spread, gaps in surveillance amid conflict zones, or delayed responses allowing wider seeding before resolution criteria are met.