Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge at 21 percent. The district’s Republican lean, shown by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and Obernolte’s prior 60 percent general-election win, anchors trader consensus on a Republican hold. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. With limited polling and no major recent developments altering the race, the wide implied probability gap reflects the district’s fundamentals and the absence of competitive pressure. Late national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or turnout surprises remain the primary variables that could narrow the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-23 Wahlsieger
CA-23 Wahlsieger
$60,553 Vol.
$60,553 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
93%
Demokratische Partei
6%
$60,553 Vol.
$60,553 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$28,392 Vol.
93%
Demokratische Partei
$32,161 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge at 21 percent. The district’s Republican lean, shown by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and Obernolte’s prior 60 percent general-election win, anchors trader consensus on a Republican hold. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. With limited polling and no major recent developments altering the race, the wide implied probability gap reflects the district’s fundamentals and the absence of competitive pressure. Late national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or turnout surprises remain the primary variables that could narrow the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$60,553Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge at 21 percent. The district’s Republican lean, shown by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and Obernolte’s prior 60 percent general-election win, anchors trader consensus on a Republican hold. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. With limited polling and no major recent developments altering the race, the wide implied probability gap reflects the district’s fundamentals and the absence of competitive pressure. Late national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or turnout surprises remain the primary variables that could narrow the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$60,553Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge at 21 percent. The district’s Republican lean, shown by Donald Trump’s 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and Obernolte’s prior 60 percent general-election win, anchors trader consensus on a Republican hold. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. With limited polling and no major recent developments altering the race, the wide implied probability gap reflects the district’s fundamentals and the absence of competitive pressure. Late national shifts, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or turnout surprises remain the primary variables that could narrow the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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