**No charges against former Rep. Eric Swalwell are expected by the September 30 deadline, consistent with the 93.6% trader-implied probability favoring that outcome.** Swalwell resigned from Congress in April 2026 after multiple women publicly alleged sexual misconduct, including assault claims that prompted state-level inquiries by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office and Los Angeles authorities, plus a bipartisan House Ethics Committee review. In mid-August, FBI agents executed search warrants, seized his iPhone and MacBook at San Francisco International Airport, and searched his Washington home as part of a federal civil-rights probe under 18 U.S.C. § 242, examining whether official authority was misused. Devices were obtained only about five weeks before the market’s cutoff, and no indictments or formal charging announcements have followed. Federal investigations of this type typically require extended evidence review, forensic analysis, and prosecutorial deliberation before any charging decision. The remaining nine-day window is too narrow for those steps to conclude, especially absent public signals of imminent action from the U.S. Attorney’s office in San Francisco or the Department of Justice. Earlier scrutiny of Swalwell’s past interactions with a suspected Chinese operative produced declassified records but no charges, further illustrating the deliberate pace of such matters. Traders appear to weigh these procedural realities and the absence of recent escalatory developments as decisive.