Recent second-quarter U.S. real GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter, combined with consensus forecasts clustering near 2.1–2.2% for full-year 2026, underpins trader positioning around the 2.0–2.5% range. Resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment have offset drags from higher imports, softer government outlays, and a gradually cooling labor market, keeping growth near potential. Elevated oil prices and persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3% have prompted expectations of a September FOMC rate adjustment, tempering upside risks while supporting a moderate expansion path. Market-implied odds reflect this balanced outlook amid uncertainty over trade effects and monetary policy calibration.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert2,0–2,5 % 54%
1,5–2,0 % 14.5%
>2,5 % 10.7%
<0,5 % 3.8%
$67,983 Vol.
$67,983 Vol.
28. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
4%
0,5–1,0 %
1%
1,0–1,5 %
1%
1,5–2,0 %
14%
2,0–2,5 %
54%
>2,5 %
11%
2,0–2,5 % 54%
1,5–2,0 % 14.5%
>2,5 % 10.7%
<0,5 % 3.8%
$67,983 Vol.
$67,983 Vol.
28. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
$7,983 Vol.
4%
0,5–1,0 %
$17,634 Vol.
1%
1,0–1,5 %
$4,234 Vol.
1%
1,5–2,0 %
$8,506 Vol.
14%
2,0–2,5 %
$12,753 Vol.
54%
>2,5 %
$16,872 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent second-quarter U.S. real GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter, combined with consensus forecasts clustering near 2.1–2.2% for full-year 2026, underpins trader positioning around the 2.0–2.5% range. Resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment have offset drags from higher imports, softer government outlays, and a gradually cooling labor market, keeping growth near potential. Elevated oil prices and persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3% have prompted expectations of a September FOMC rate adjustment, tempering upside risks while supporting a moderate expansion path. Market-implied odds reflect this balanced outlook amid uncertainty over trade effects and monetary policy calibration.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$67,983Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent second-quarter U.S. real GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter, combined with consensus forecasts clustering near 2.1–2.2% for full-year 2026, underpins trader positioning around the 2.0–2.5% range. Resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment have offset drags from higher imports, softer government outlays, and a gradually cooling labor market, keeping growth near potential. Elevated oil prices and persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3% have prompted expectations of a September FOMC rate adjustment, tempering upside risks while supporting a moderate expansion path. Market-implied odds reflect this balanced outlook amid uncertainty over trade effects and monetary policy calibration.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$67,983Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Recent second-quarter U.S. real GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter, combined with consensus forecasts clustering near 2.1–2.2% for full-year 2026, underpins trader positioning around the 2.0–2.5% range. Resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment have offset drags from higher imports, softer government outlays, and a gradually cooling labor market, keeping growth near potential. Elevated oil prices and persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3% have prompted expectations of a September FOMC rate adjustment, tempering upside risks while supporting a moderate expansion path. Market-implied odds reflect this balanced outlook amid uncertainty over trade effects and monetary policy calibration.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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