The absence of any hantavirus vaccine candidates in late-stage Phase 3 trials underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against approval or availability in 2026. Most efforts, including Moderna-Korea University mRNA constructs and UTMB single-dose mRNA platforms, remain preclinical with strong hamster-model protection data, while DNA vaccines have completed only Phase 1 or early Phase 2 immunogenicity studies. Standard timelines from current stages to regulatory approval span multiple years, complicated by the need for large efficacy trials against a rare, geographically dispersed pathogen. A sudden surge in cases triggering emergency authorization or accelerated pathways could theoretically shift outcomes, though no such mechanism is active.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
6% Chance
$131,479 Vol.
$131,479 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
6% Chance
$131,479 Vol.
$131,479 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any hantavirus vaccine candidates in late-stage Phase 3 trials underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against approval or availability in 2026. Most efforts, including Moderna-Korea University mRNA constructs and UTMB single-dose mRNA platforms, remain preclinical with strong hamster-model protection data, while DNA vaccines have completed only Phase 1 or early Phase 2 immunogenicity studies. Standard timelines from current stages to regulatory approval span multiple years, complicated by the need for large efficacy trials against a rare, geographically dispersed pathogen. A sudden surge in cases triggering emergency authorization or accelerated pathways could theoretically shift outcomes, though no such mechanism is active.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volumen
$131,479Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any hantavirus vaccine candidates in late-stage Phase 3 trials underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against approval or availability in 2026. Most efforts, including Moderna-Korea University mRNA constructs and UTMB single-dose mRNA platforms, remain preclinical with strong hamster-model protection data, while DNA vaccines have completed only Phase 1 or early Phase 2 immunogenicity studies. Standard timelines from current stages to regulatory approval span multiple years, complicated by the need for large efficacy trials against a rare, geographically dispersed pathogen. A sudden surge in cases triggering emergency authorization or accelerated pathways could theoretically shift outcomes, though no such mechanism is active.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$131,479Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...The absence of any hantavirus vaccine candidates in late-stage Phase 3 trials underpins the 94.5% market-implied probability against approval or availability in 2026. Most efforts, including Moderna-Korea University mRNA constructs and UTMB single-dose mRNA platforms, remain preclinical with strong hamster-model protection data, while DNA vaccines have completed only Phase 1 or early Phase 2 immunogenicity studies. Standard timelines from current stages to regulatory approval span multiple years, complicated by the need for large efficacy trials against a rare, geographically dispersed pathogen. A sudden surge in cases triggering emergency authorization or accelerated pathways could theoretically shift outcomes, though no such mechanism is active.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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