Skip to main content

Um in den USA zu traden, geh zu polymarket.us

icon for IN-01 Wahlsieger
Politik·Midterms

IN-01 Wahlsieger

icon for IN-01 Wahlsieger
Politik·Midterms

IN-01 Wahlsieger

Polymarket
NEU
Polymarket
NEU

Frank Mrvan (D)

$3,063 Vol.

94%

Barb Regnitz (R)

$3,955 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Indiana’s 1st congressional district due to the seat’s established Democratic lean, his consistent overperformance in prior cycles, and the absence of major recent developments that would shift fundamentals. The district supported Kamala Harris by 6.5 points in 2024 and carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats, while Mrvan secured renomination with over 80 percent in the May primary. Republican nominee Barb Regnitz, a former Porter County commissioner who prevailed in her own contested primary, faces structural headwinds in a race rated Likely Democratic by major forecasters. Traders price in these factors through the general election on November 3, 2026. A significant national partisan swing, unforeseen scandal, or sharp deterioration in local economic conditions could still narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have materialized in recent months.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$7,017
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Indiana’s 1st congressional district due to the seat’s established Democratic lean, his consistent overperformance in prior cycles, and the absence of major recent developments that would shift fundamentals. The district supported Kamala Harris by 6.5 points in 2024 and carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats, while Mrvan secured renomination with over 80 percent in the May primary. Republican nominee Barb Regnitz, a former Porter County commissioner who prevailed in her own contested primary, faces structural headwinds in a race rated Likely Democratic by major forecasters. Traders price in these factors through the general election on November 3, 2026. A significant national partisan swing, unforeseen scandal, or sharp deterioration in local economic conditions could still narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have materialized in recent months.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$7,017
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den IN-02 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den IN-02 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

96%
Ja
icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den IN-06 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den IN-06 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

95%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den Abgeordnetensitz ME-01 gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den Abgeordnetensitz ME-01 gewinnen?

95%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„IN-01 Wahlsieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Frank Mrvan (D)" mit 94%, gefolgt von „Barb Regnitz (R)" mit 2%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 94¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 94% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„IN-01 Wahlsieger" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Dec 16, 2025. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „IN-01 Wahlsieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „IN-01 Wahlsieger" ist „Frank Mrvan (D)" mit 94%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 94% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Barb Regnitz (R)" mit 2%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „IN-01 Wahlsieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.