The withdrawal of Gilad Erdan’s Unity party from the October 27 Knesset election, confirmed just before the September 8 candidate list deadline, has anchored trader expectations for its vote share below 0.5 percent. Blue and White, the remaining centrist vehicle tied to Benny Gantz and earlier National Unity efforts, registers at or below 1 percent in nearly all recent polls and frequently falls short of the 3.25 percent electoral threshold. Fragmentation across new centrist and right-leaning slates, combined with stable bloc projections favoring larger parties such as Likud and Yashar, reinforces the low-probability assessment reflected in current pricing. Late mergers or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided voters could still alter the final tally before election day.