Johnny Olszewski secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 2nd congressional district in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly 84.5 percent of the vote and now faces Republican nominee Dave Wallace in the November 3 general election. The district, rated Solid Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, encompasses portions of Baltimore County, Carroll County, and Baltimore City and carries a consistent Democratic lean. Olszewski’s substantial fundraising edge—over $1 million raised compared with Wallace’s roughly $20,000—combined with his incumbency and the absence of competitive opposition has produced the current trader consensus. Wallace, a business owner making a repeat bid, won his primary decisively but faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic candidates have prevailed by double-digit margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as a major scandal or unexpected national political shift remain the primary factors that could narrow the gap before Election Day.