Incumbent Susie Lee holds a commanding position in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, a Las Vegas-area swing seat with a D+1 partisan lean where she has won recent general elections by narrow margins. Her decisive primary victory, substantial fundraising edge, and consistent support from forecasters rating the race Lean Democratic underpin trader consensus around 93 percent. Republican nominee Marty O’Donnell, backed by a Trump endorsement and comparable campaign resources, has narrowed the gap from prior cycles but faces structural headwinds in a district that has favored the Democratic incumbent since 2018. Late developments such as shifts in national turnout, gubernatorial coattails, or unexpected campaign events remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before November.