Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after João Azevêdo’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling leads of 35–38% against Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19–25% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 18–21%. A late-August Quaest survey showed 61% approval for his administration, with voters favoring continuity or partial adjustments and a preference for Lula-aligned leadership. His broad coalition, including PP, União Brasil, and other parties, plus minimal support for minor candidates, underpins the 79.5% implied probability, while Lucena and Filho trail at 15.5% and 5.5% respectively amid the campaign’s free-electoral propaganda phase.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertLucas Ribeiro 80%
Cícero Lucena 16%
Efraim Filho 6%
Flávio Lúcio <1%
$57,260 Vol.
$57,260 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
80%
Cícero Lucena
16%
Efraim Filho
6%
Flávio Lúcio
1%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
1%
Nilvan Ferreira
1%
Romero Rodrigues
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
<1%
Lucas Ribeiro 80%
Cícero Lucena 16%
Efraim Filho 6%
Flávio Lúcio <1%
$57,260 Vol.
$57,260 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
$16,855 Vol.
80%
Cícero Lucena
$18,237 Vol.
16%
Efraim Filho
$13,293 Vol.
6%
Flávio Lúcio
$841 Vol.
1%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
$2,395 Vol.
1%
Nilvan Ferreira
$843 Vol.
1%
Romero Rodrigues
$1,469 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
$3,327 Vol.
<1%
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after João Azevêdo’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling leads of 35–38% against Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19–25% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 18–21%. A late-August Quaest survey showed 61% approval for his administration, with voters favoring continuity or partial adjustments and a preference for Lula-aligned leadership. His broad coalition, including PP, União Brasil, and other parties, plus minimal support for minor candidates, underpins the 79.5% implied probability, while Lucena and Filho trail at 15.5% and 5.5% respectively amid the campaign’s free-electoral propaganda phase.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volumen
$57,260Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after João Azevêdo’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling leads of 35–38% against Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19–25% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 18–21%. A late-August Quaest survey showed 61% approval for his administration, with voters favoring continuity or partial adjustments and a preference for Lula-aligned leadership. His broad coalition, including PP, União Brasil, and other parties, plus minimal support for minor candidates, underpins the 79.5% implied probability, while Lucena and Filho trail at 15.5% and 5.5% respectively amid the campaign’s free-electoral propaganda phase.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$57,260Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after João Azevêdo’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the October 4 first-round contest due to consistent polling leads of 35–38% against Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19–25% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 18–21%. A late-August Quaest survey showed 61% approval for his administration, with voters favoring continuity or partial adjustments and a preference for Lula-aligned leadership. His broad coalition, including PP, União Brasil, and other parties, plus minimal support for minor candidates, underpins the 79.5% implied probability, while Lucena and Filho trail at 15.5% and 5.5% respectively amid the campaign’s free-electoral propaganda phase.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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