Anthropic holds the highest implied probability at 50.5% for second place in Code Arena WebDev by end of November, reflecting its Claude Fable 5.1 model's recent near-top ranking just behind OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard. This positioning stems from Anthropic’s consistent strength in agentic coding workflows, multi-step frontend tasks, and tool use, with scores clustering tightly among mid-tier labs like Alibaba, Moonshot, and Meta. OpenAI’s early September launch solidified first place, while open-weight contenders such as DeepSeek and Z.ai show rapid gains on cost-adjusted benchmarks but trail in overall votes. Traders appear focused on whether Anthropic can maintain its edge through November or if faster iterations from Google, Tencent, or others will shift the hierarchy before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 51%
OpenAI 17%
Google 14%
SpaceXAI 12.2%

Anthropic
51%

OpenAI
17%

14%

SpaceXAI
12%

DeepSeek
11%

Tencent
10%

Meta
8%

MiniMax
6%

ByteDance
5%

Z.ai
4%

Alibaba
4%

Mistral
4%

Poolside
4%

Xiaomi
3%

Moonshot
2%

Thinky
2%
Anthropic 51%
OpenAI 17%
Google 14%
SpaceXAI 12.2%

Anthropic
51%

OpenAI
17%

14%

SpaceXAI
12%

DeepSeek
11%

Tencent
10%

Meta
8%

MiniMax
6%

ByteDance
5%

Z.ai
4%

Alibaba
4%

Mistral
4%

Poolside
4%

Xiaomi
3%

Moonshot
2%

Thinky
2%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the highest implied probability at 50.5% for second place in Code Arena WebDev by end of November, reflecting its Claude Fable 5.1 model's recent near-top ranking just behind OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on the crowdsourced Elo-style leaderboard. This positioning stems from Anthropic’s consistent strength in agentic coding workflows, multi-step frontend tasks, and tool use, with scores clustering tightly among mid-tier labs like Alibaba, Moonshot, and Meta. OpenAI’s early September launch solidified first place, while open-weight contenders such as DeepSeek and Z.ai show rapid gains on cost-adjusted benchmarks but trail in overall votes. Traders appear focused on whether Anthropic can maintain its edge through November or if faster iterations from Google, Tencent, or others will shift the hierarchy before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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