President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration officials have limited scope to non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site. The U.S. has upheld its voluntary moratorium on yield-producing explosive tests since 1992, with full underground detonation capability requiring 24-36 months of preparation under current plans. As of September 2026, no such explosive test has been authorized or scheduled, and Senate testimony plus internal deliberations continue to emphasize assessment rather than immediate resumption. These factors, alongside bipartisan opposition in Nevada and international calls to preserve the testing taboo, underpin trader consensus assigning low implied probabilities to near-term explosive tests.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$795,287 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September 2026
1%
31. Dezember 2026
5%
$795,287 Vol.
30. September 2026
$57,555 Vol.
1%
31. Dezember 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration officials have limited scope to non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site. The U.S. has upheld its voluntary moratorium on yield-producing explosive tests since 1992, with full underground detonation capability requiring 24-36 months of preparation under current plans. As of September 2026, no such explosive test has been authorized or scheduled, and Senate testimony plus internal deliberations continue to emphasize assessment rather than immediate resumption. These factors, alongside bipartisan opposition in Nevada and international calls to preserve the testing taboo, underpin trader consensus assigning low implied probabilities to near-term explosive tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$795,287Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration officials have limited scope to non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site. The U.S. has upheld its voluntary moratorium on yield-producing explosive tests since 1992, with full underground detonation capability requiring 24-36 months of preparation under current plans. As of September 2026, no such explosive test has been authorized or scheduled, and Senate testimony plus internal deliberations continue to emphasize assessment rather than immediate resumption. These factors, alongside bipartisan opposition in Nevada and international calls to preserve the testing taboo, underpin trader consensus assigning low implied probabilities to near-term explosive tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$795,287Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities initially raised expectations, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration officials have limited scope to non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site. The U.S. has upheld its voluntary moratorium on yield-producing explosive tests since 1992, with full underground detonation capability requiring 24-36 months of preparation under current plans. As of September 2026, no such explosive test has been authorized or scheduled, and Senate testimony plus internal deliberations continue to emphasize assessment rather than immediate resumption. These factors, alongside bipartisan opposition in Nevada and international calls to preserve the testing taboo, underpin trader consensus assigning low implied probabilities to near-term explosive tests.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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