Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting centrifuge operations and leaving roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to sensitive facilities since June 2025, while a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum calls for downblending stockpiles under safeguards amid ongoing negotiations and reimposed sanctions. These constraints, combined with the absence of verified weaponization activity or test preparations, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise if Iran extracts and processes buried material for a rushed device despite surveillance and deterrence risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
4% Chance
$254,880 Vol.
$254,880 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
4% Chance
$254,880 Vol.
$254,880 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting centrifuge operations and leaving roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to sensitive facilities since June 2025, while a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum calls for downblending stockpiles under safeguards amid ongoing negotiations and reimposed sanctions. These constraints, combined with the absence of verified weaponization activity or test preparations, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise if Iran extracts and processes buried material for a rushed device despite surveillance and deterrence risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$254,880Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting centrifuge operations and leaving roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to sensitive facilities since June 2025, while a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum calls for downblending stockpiles under safeguards amid ongoing negotiations and reimposed sanctions. These constraints, combined with the absence of verified weaponization activity or test preparations, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise if Iran extracts and processes buried material for a rushed device despite surveillance and deterrence risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$254,880Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting centrifuge operations and leaving roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium inaccessible under rubble. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to sensitive facilities since June 2025, while a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum calls for downblending stockpiles under safeguards amid ongoing negotiations and reimposed sanctions. These constraints, combined with the absence of verified weaponization activity or test preparations, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Late shifts could still arise if Iran extracts and processes buried material for a rushed device despite surveillance and deterrence risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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