The Iranian regime has demonstrated resilience amid 2026 military exchanges with Israel and the US, leadership succession following Ali Khamenei's death, and intensified US sanctions under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that have driven the rial to record lows. Authorities have suppressed January and subsequent protests through executions, arrests, and security measures while managing a transition to Mojtaba Khamenei without major elite defections or institutional breakdown. Recent August missile incidents and diplomatic maneuvering have not triggered the widespread mobilization or fiscal collapse needed for regime change before 2027. Traders price the "No" outcome at 92.5% based on this pattern of adaptation under sustained external and domestic pressure, consistent with the Islamic Republic's prior endurance through comparable crises.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
8% Chance
$25,352,445 Vol.
$25,352,445 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
8% Chance
$25,352,445 Vol.
$25,352,445 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has demonstrated resilience amid 2026 military exchanges with Israel and the US, leadership succession following Ali Khamenei's death, and intensified US sanctions under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that have driven the rial to record lows. Authorities have suppressed January and subsequent protests through executions, arrests, and security measures while managing a transition to Mojtaba Khamenei without major elite defections or institutional breakdown. Recent August missile incidents and diplomatic maneuvering have not triggered the widespread mobilization or fiscal collapse needed for regime change before 2027. Traders price the "No" outcome at 92.5% based on this pattern of adaptation under sustained external and domestic pressure, consistent with the Islamic Republic's prior endurance through comparable crises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$25,352,445Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has demonstrated resilience amid 2026 military exchanges with Israel and the US, leadership succession following Ali Khamenei's death, and intensified US sanctions under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that have driven the rial to record lows. Authorities have suppressed January and subsequent protests through executions, arrests, and security measures while managing a transition to Mojtaba Khamenei without major elite defections or institutional breakdown. Recent August missile incidents and diplomatic maneuvering have not triggered the widespread mobilization or fiscal collapse needed for regime change before 2027. Traders price the "No" outcome at 92.5% based on this pattern of adaptation under sustained external and domestic pressure, consistent with the Islamic Republic's prior endurance through comparable crises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$25,352,445Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime has demonstrated resilience amid 2026 military exchanges with Israel and the US, leadership succession following Ali Khamenei's death, and intensified US sanctions under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that have driven the rial to record lows. Authorities have suppressed January and subsequent protests through executions, arrests, and security measures while managing a transition to Mojtaba Khamenei without major elite defections or institutional breakdown. Recent August missile incidents and diplomatic maneuvering have not triggered the widespread mobilization or fiscal collapse needed for regime change before 2027. Traders price the "No" outcome at 92.5% based on this pattern of adaptation under sustained external and domestic pressure, consistent with the Islamic Republic's prior endurance through comparable crises.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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