Raphaël Glucksmann holds an 84% implied probability of winning the first round of the October 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary, far ahead of Olivier Faure at 13.5% and lower shares for Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Philippe Brun. Traders price this outcome on Glucksmann’s consistent lead in national polling for the social-democratic space, his early August announcement backed by prominent PS figures and Anne Hidalgo, and his positioning as the candidate with the strongest general-election appeal against the far right. Faure’s late-August entry and the closed primary rules agreed in August have narrowed the field but not shifted momentum, while the remaining declared candidates lack comparable visibility or institutional support ahead of the October 1 debate and the first-round vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRaphaël Glucksmann 84%
Olivier Faure 14%
Jérôme Guedj 5%
Ségolène Royal 1.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 oct 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
84%
Olivier Faure
14%
Jérôme Guedj
5%
Ségolène Royal
2%
Emmanuel Maurel
2%
Philippe Brun
1%
Raphaël Glucksmann 84%
Olivier Faure 14%
Jérôme Guedj 5%
Ségolène Royal 1.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 oct 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
$1,532 Vol.
84%
Olivier Faure
$290 Vol.
14%
Jérôme Guedj
$226 Vol.
5%
Ségolène Royal
$195 Vol.
2%
Emmanuel Maurel
$187 Vol.
2%
Philippe Brun
$140 Vol.
1%
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann holds an 84% implied probability of winning the first round of the October 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary, far ahead of Olivier Faure at 13.5% and lower shares for Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Philippe Brun. Traders price this outcome on Glucksmann’s consistent lead in national polling for the social-democratic space, his early August announcement backed by prominent PS figures and Anne Hidalgo, and his positioning as the candidate with the strongest general-election appeal against the far right. Faure’s late-August entry and the closed primary rules agreed in August have narrowed the field but not shifted momentum, while the remaining declared candidates lack comparable visibility or institutional support ahead of the October 1 debate and the first-round vote.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Mercado abierto: Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$2,569Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann holds an 84% implied probability of winning the first round of the October 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary, far ahead of Olivier Faure at 13.5% and lower shares for Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Philippe Brun. Traders price this outcome on Glucksmann’s consistent lead in national polling for the social-democratic space, his early August announcement backed by prominent PS figures and Anne Hidalgo, and his positioning as the candidate with the strongest general-election appeal against the far right. Faure’s late-August entry and the closed primary rules agreed in August have narrowed the field but not shifted momentum, while the remaining declared candidates lack comparable visibility or institutional support ahead of the October 1 debate and the first-round vote.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volumen
$2,569Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Raphaël Glucksmann holds an 84% implied probability of winning the first round of the October 2026 French Socialist Party presidential primary, far ahead of Olivier Faure at 13.5% and lower shares for Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Philippe Brun. Traders price this outcome on Glucksmann’s consistent lead in national polling for the social-democratic space, his early August announcement backed by prominent PS figures and Anne Hidalgo, and his positioning as the candidate with the strongest general-election appeal against the far right. Faure’s late-August entry and the closed primary rules agreed in August have narrowed the field but not shifted momentum, while the remaining declared candidates lack comparable visibility or institutional support ahead of the October 1 debate and the first-round vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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