**Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus to finish second in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote.** Recent AtlasIntel, PoderData, Datafolha, and Nexus surveys show President Lula da Silva (PT) ahead with 38–43 percent while Flávio (PL) holds 33–37 percent, placing him well clear of fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in the low-to-mid single digits. The Liberal Party nominee has consolidated right-wing support as the standard-bearer for Jair Bolsonaro’s base after his father’s ineligibility and conviction. The official campaign period, which began August 16 with free electoral broadcasts starting August 28, has not altered this ordering. Traders therefore price Flávio as the near-certain runner-up absent a late surge by any third candidate capable of overtaking him before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 11.8%
Augusto Cury 1.7%
Renan Santos <1%
$5,757,372 Vol.
$5,757,372 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
12%
Augusto Cury
2%
Renan Santos
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 11.8%
Augusto Cury 1.7%
Renan Santos <1%
$5,757,372 Vol.
$5,757,372 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
86%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
12%
Augusto Cury
2%
Renan Santos
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus to finish second in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote.** Recent AtlasIntel, PoderData, Datafolha, and Nexus surveys show President Lula da Silva (PT) ahead with 38–43 percent while Flávio (PL) holds 33–37 percent, placing him well clear of fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in the low-to-mid single digits. The Liberal Party nominee has consolidated right-wing support as the standard-bearer for Jair Bolsonaro’s base after his father’s ineligibility and conviction. The official campaign period, which began August 16 with free electoral broadcasts starting August 28, has not altered this ordering. Traders therefore price Flávio as the near-certain runner-up absent a late surge by any third candidate capable of overtaking him before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Augusto Cury terminará en tercer lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
¿Obtendrá Flavio Bolsonaro la mayor cantidad de votos en la próxima elección presidencial de Brasil en el Distrito Federal?
¿Obtendrá Flavio Bolsonaro la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en Paraná?
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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