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Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Sergipe

icon for Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Sergipe
Política·Brasil

Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Sergipe

Lula 95.5%

Flavio Bolsonaro 2.5%

Clariana Barao 1.4%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket

$14,049 Vol.

Lula 95.5%

Flavio Bolsonaro 2.5%

Clariana Barao 1.4%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Polymarket

$14,049 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$7,367 Vol.

96%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$647 Vol.

3%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$1,103 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$506 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$490 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$512 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$506 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$490 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$512 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$518 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinario Wilson Grassi

Veterinario Wilson Grassi

$498 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$431 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$469 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s longstanding support in Brazil’s Northeast region and consistent government approval ratings near 60 percent. Recent Quaest surveys place him at 53 percent, far ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-20 percent, with all other declared candidates below 3 percent. Traders price this dominance at 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the incumbent’s structural advantages in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national economic downturn before election day, unexpected health developments, or a late surge by opposition figures that boosts turnout among undecided voters, though no such shift has materialized in the latest state-level data.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$14,049
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s longstanding support in Brazil’s Northeast region and consistent government approval ratings near 60 percent. Recent Quaest surveys place him at 53 percent, far ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-20 percent, with all other declared candidates below 3 percent. Traders price this dominance at 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the incumbent’s structural advantages in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national economic downturn before election day, unexpected health developments, or a late surge by opposition figures that boosts turnout among undecided voters, though no such shift has materialized in the latest state-level data.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$14,049
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Relacionado

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¿Ganará Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2026?

90%
Sí
icon for ¿Flavio Bolsonaro obtendrá la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en São Paulo?

¿Flavio Bolsonaro obtendrá la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en São Paulo?

70%
Sí
icon for ¿Obtendrá Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en Paraíba?

¿Obtendrá Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de Brasil en Paraíba?

96%
Sí

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Sergipe" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Lula" con 96%, seguido de "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 3%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 96¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 96% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Sergipe" ha generado $14K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Aug 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Sergipe", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Sergipe" es "Lula" con 96%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 96% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Flavio Bolsonaro" con 3%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: 1er lugar en Sergipe" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.