With the highest magnitude recorded so far in 2026 at 7.8 (Philippines, June), traders assign a 73% implied probability to no stronger event through year-end, reflecting the roughly one M8+ quake expected annually worldwide on the moment magnitude scale. USGS data show 11 M7+ events year-to-date, consistent with historical averages, including recent M7.7 (Indonesia, August) and M7.4 (Colombia) shocks that did not exceed the existing maximum. Large ruptures capable of M8+ require extensive subduction-zone fault segments with accumulated strain, but current seismic monitoring reveals no accelerating foreshock sequences or model consensus pointing to imminent escalation. The remaining four months introduce genuine uncertainty, as random clustering can produce outliers while many years record none above 7.9.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La mayor magnitud de terremoto en 2026?
¿La mayor magnitud de terremoto en 2026?
7.9 o menos 73%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8,2 – 8,3 7%
8,6 – 8,7 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 ene 2027
7.9 o menos
73%
8.0 – 8.1
12%
8,2 – 8,3
7%
8,4 – 8,5
4%
8,6 – 8,7
5%
8.8 – 8.9
2%
9.0 o más
4%
7.9 o menos 73%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8,2 – 8,3 7%
8,6 – 8,7 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 ene 2027
7.9 o menos
$2,014 Vol.
73%
8.0 – 8.1
$112 Vol.
12%
8,2 – 8,3
$174 Vol.
7%
8,4 – 8,5
$59 Vol.
4%
8,6 – 8,7
$163 Vol.
5%
8.8 – 8.9
$59 Vol.
2%
9.0 o más
$51 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.With the highest magnitude recorded so far in 2026 at 7.8 (Philippines, June), traders assign a 73% implied probability to no stronger event through year-end, reflecting the roughly one M8+ quake expected annually worldwide on the moment magnitude scale. USGS data show 11 M7+ events year-to-date, consistent with historical averages, including recent M7.7 (Indonesia, August) and M7.4 (Colombia) shocks that did not exceed the existing maximum. Large ruptures capable of M8+ require extensive subduction-zone fault segments with accumulated strain, but current seismic monitoring reveals no accelerating foreshock sequences or model consensus pointing to imminent escalation. The remaining four months introduce genuine uncertainty, as random clustering can produce outliers while many years record none above 7.9.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volumen
$2,631Fecha de finalización
4 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.With the highest magnitude recorded so far in 2026 at 7.8 (Philippines, June), traders assign a 73% implied probability to no stronger event through year-end, reflecting the roughly one M8+ quake expected annually worldwide on the moment magnitude scale. USGS data show 11 M7+ events year-to-date, consistent with historical averages, including recent M7.7 (Indonesia, August) and M7.4 (Colombia) shocks that did not exceed the existing maximum. Large ruptures capable of M8+ require extensive subduction-zone fault segments with accumulated strain, but current seismic monitoring reveals no accelerating foreshock sequences or model consensus pointing to imminent escalation. The remaining four months introduce genuine uncertainty, as random clustering can produce outliers while many years record none above 7.9.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$2,631Fecha de finalización
4 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With the highest magnitude recorded so far in 2026 at 7.8 (Philippines, June), traders assign a 73% implied probability to no stronger event through year-end, reflecting the roughly one M8+ quake expected annually worldwide on the moment magnitude scale. USGS data show 11 M7+ events year-to-date, consistent with historical averages, including recent M7.7 (Indonesia, August) and M7.4 (Colombia) shocks that did not exceed the existing maximum. Large ruptures capable of M8+ require extensive subduction-zone fault segments with accumulated strain, but current seismic monitoring reveals no accelerating foreshock sequences or model consensus pointing to imminent escalation. The remaining four months introduce genuine uncertainty, as random clustering can produce outliers while many years record none above 7.9.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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