Trader consensus favoring an 83% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the unusually suppressed 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions per National Hurricane Center monitoring. No Category 5 U.S. landfall has occurred, and Pacific activity, while active under emerging El Niño influences, has produced no qualifying U.S. strikes. USGS records show the year’s strongest events, including the June Venezuela doublet (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), fall well short of the 8.5+ threshold, while no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have been confirmed by global monitoring networks. With roughly three months remaining and model guidance indicating continued unfavorable steering patterns, the skin-in-the-game assessment reflects low near-term probability of any resolution trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
17% probabilidad
$246,856 Vol.
$246,856 Vol.
28 feb 2027
Sí
17% probabilidad
$246,856 Vol.
$246,856 Vol.
28 feb 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 83% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the unusually suppressed 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions per National Hurricane Center monitoring. No Category 5 U.S. landfall has occurred, and Pacific activity, while active under emerging El Niño influences, has produced no qualifying U.S. strikes. USGS records show the year’s strongest events, including the June Venezuela doublet (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), fall well short of the 8.5+ threshold, while no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have been confirmed by global monitoring networks. With roughly three months remaining and model guidance indicating continued unfavorable steering patterns, the skin-in-the-game assessment reflects low near-term probability of any resolution trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$246,856Fecha de finalización
1 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 83% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the unusually suppressed 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions per National Hurricane Center monitoring. No Category 5 U.S. landfall has occurred, and Pacific activity, while active under emerging El Niño influences, has produced no qualifying U.S. strikes. USGS records show the year’s strongest events, including the June Venezuela doublet (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), fall well short of the 8.5+ threshold, while no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have been confirmed by global monitoring networks. With roughly three months remaining and model guidance indicating continued unfavorable steering patterns, the skin-in-the-game assessment reflects low near-term probability of any resolution trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$246,856Fecha de finalización
1 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring an 83% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the unusually suppressed 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions per National Hurricane Center monitoring. No Category 5 U.S. landfall has occurred, and Pacific activity, while active under emerging El Niño influences, has produced no qualifying U.S. strikes. USGS records show the year’s strongest events, including the June Venezuela doublet (magnitudes 7.2–7.5), fall well short of the 8.5+ threshold, while no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have been confirmed by global monitoring networks. With roughly three months remaining and model guidance indicating continued unfavorable steering patterns, the skin-in-the-game assessment reflects low near-term probability of any resolution trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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