**Trader consensus on the “5kt meteor strike in 2026?” market, with “No” at 75.5%, reflects NASA CNEOS fireball data and near-Earth object monitoring showing no qualifying bolide through mid-September and no catalogued impactors on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year.** Historical records indicate meter-scale objects release roughly 5 kt of energy about once per year on average, with significant year-to-year variance driven by stochastic flux from the asteroid belt. Recent 2025 events remained well below threshold (0.38–0.44 kt), and 2026 activity has followed the same pattern of smaller fireballs. With roughly 3.5 months left and no upcoming model runs or observations signaling an elevated risk, the market-implied odds align with the low-to-moderate annual probability tempered by the absence of confirmed precursors. Continued CNEOS updates through year-end will provide the decisive data for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
Sí
24% probabilidad
$313,828 Vol.
$313,828 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
24% probabilidad
$313,828 Vol.
$313,828 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus on the “5kt meteor strike in 2026?” market, with “No” at 75.5%, reflects NASA CNEOS fireball data and near-Earth object monitoring showing no qualifying bolide through mid-September and no catalogued impactors on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year.**
Historical records indicate meter-scale objects release roughly 5 kt of energy about once per year on average, with significant year-to-year variance driven by stochastic flux from the asteroid belt. Recent 2025 events remained well below threshold (0.38–0.44 kt), and 2026 activity has followed the same pattern of smaller fireballs. With roughly 3.5 months left and no upcoming model runs or observations signaling an elevated risk, the market-implied odds align with the low-to-moderate annual probability tempered by the absence of confirmed precursors. Continued CNEOS updates through year-end will provide the decisive data for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$313,828Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus on the “5kt meteor strike in 2026?” market, with “No” at 75.5%, reflects NASA CNEOS fireball data and near-Earth object monitoring showing no qualifying bolide through mid-September and no catalogued impactors on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year.**
Historical records indicate meter-scale objects release roughly 5 kt of energy about once per year on average, with significant year-to-year variance driven by stochastic flux from the asteroid belt. Recent 2025 events remained well below threshold (0.38–0.44 kt), and 2026 activity has followed the same pattern of smaller fireballs. With roughly 3.5 months left and no upcoming model runs or observations signaling an elevated risk, the market-implied odds align with the low-to-moderate annual probability tempered by the absence of confirmed precursors. Continued CNEOS updates through year-end will provide the decisive data for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$313,828Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on the “5kt meteor strike in 2026?” market, with “No” at 75.5%, reflects NASA CNEOS fireball data and near-Earth object monitoring showing no qualifying bolide through mid-September and no catalogued impactors on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year.** Historical records indicate meter-scale objects release roughly 5 kt of energy about once per year on average, with significant year-to-year variance driven by stochastic flux from the asteroid belt. Recent 2025 events remained well below threshold (0.38–0.44 kt), and 2026 activity has followed the same pattern of smaller fireballs. With roughly 3.5 months left and no upcoming model runs or observations signaling an elevated risk, the market-implied odds align with the low-to-moderate annual probability tempered by the absence of confirmed precursors. Continued CNEOS updates through year-end will provide the decisive data for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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