Incumbent Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to its R+11 partisan voter index, established Republican voting patterns in rural northern Illinois counties, and LaHood’s incumbency advantages including name recognition, family political legacy, and committee roles on Ways and Means and Intelligence. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primaries, and LaHood’s fundraising edge exceeds $3.6 million raised with over $6.7 million cash on hand compared to challenger Paul Nolley’s roughly $416,000. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 93.5% for LaHood reflects these structural factors. A Democratic victory would require an unusually strong national midterm wave, major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout shifts in the final weeks before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIL-16 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
IL-16 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$38,992 Vol.
$38,992 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
7%
$38,992 Vol.
$38,992 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
$15,407 Vol.
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
$23,585 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to its R+11 partisan voter index, established Republican voting patterns in rural northern Illinois counties, and LaHood’s incumbency advantages including name recognition, family political legacy, and committee roles on Ways and Means and Intelligence. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primaries, and LaHood’s fundraising edge exceeds $3.6 million raised with over $6.7 million cash on hand compared to challenger Paul Nolley’s roughly $416,000. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 93.5% for LaHood reflects these structural factors. A Democratic victory would require an unusually strong national midterm wave, major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout shifts in the final weeks before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$38,992Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to its R+11 partisan voter index, established Republican voting patterns in rural northern Illinois counties, and LaHood’s incumbency advantages including name recognition, family political legacy, and committee roles on Ways and Means and Intelligence. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primaries, and LaHood’s fundraising edge exceeds $3.6 million raised with over $6.7 million cash on hand compared to challenger Paul Nolley’s roughly $416,000. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 93.5% for LaHood reflects these structural factors. A Democratic victory would require an unusually strong national midterm wave, major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout shifts in the final weeks before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$38,992Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race due to its R+11 partisan voter index, established Republican voting patterns in rural northern Illinois counties, and LaHood’s incumbency advantages including name recognition, family political legacy, and committee roles on Ways and Means and Intelligence. Both candidates advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primaries, and LaHood’s fundraising edge exceeds $3.6 million raised with over $6.7 million cash on hand compared to challenger Paul Nolley’s roughly $416,000. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 93.5% for LaHood reflects these structural factors. A Democratic victory would require an unusually strong national midterm wave, major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout shifts in the final weeks before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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