Meta’s internal progress on Watermelon, its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, anchors current trader sentiment. July town-hall comments from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, while August reporting cited an October target tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform and tiered subscriptions. The model remains in training as of early September, with no public weights, external evaluations, or confirmed release. Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend and September 2 Muse Spark 1.3 update signal continued momentum, yet rapid iteration cycles at OpenAI and Anthropic plus typical timeline slippage keep October odds fluid. Traders are watching for verifiable benchmarks or slips beyond the October window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$12,855 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
5%
31 de octubre
74%
30 de noviembre
94%
$12,855 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$3,460 Vol.
5%
31 de octubre
$6,507 Vol.
74%
30 de noviembre
$2,887 Vol.
94%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal progress on Watermelon, its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, anchors current trader sentiment. July town-hall comments from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, while August reporting cited an October target tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform and tiered subscriptions. The model remains in training as of early September, with no public weights, external evaluations, or confirmed release. Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend and September 2 Muse Spark 1.3 update signal continued momentum, yet rapid iteration cycles at OpenAI and Anthropic plus typical timeline slippage keep October odds fluid. Traders are watching for verifiable benchmarks or slips beyond the October window.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$12,855Fecha de finalización
30 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal progress on Watermelon, its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, anchors current trader sentiment. July town-hall comments from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, while August reporting cited an October target tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform and tiered subscriptions. The model remains in training as of early September, with no public weights, external evaluations, or confirmed release. Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend and September 2 Muse Spark 1.3 update signal continued momentum, yet rapid iteration cycles at OpenAI and Anthropic plus typical timeline slippage keep October odds fluid. Traders are watching for verifiable benchmarks or slips beyond the October window.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$12,855Fecha de finalización
30 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s internal progress on Watermelon, its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, anchors current trader sentiment. July town-hall comments from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor, while August reporting cited an October target tied to the consumer Hatch agent platform and tiered subscriptions. The model remains in training as of early September, with no public weights, external evaluations, or confirmed release. Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend and September 2 Muse Spark 1.3 update signal continued momentum, yet rapid iteration cycles at OpenAI and Anthropic plus typical timeline slippage keep October odds fluid. Traders are watching for verifiable benchmarks or slips beyond the October window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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