Republican incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination in March 2026 with nearly 60 percent of the primary vote in Texas’s 31st congressional district, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in Williamson County exurbs north of Austin and extending to military communities near Fort Hood, and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a constituency that supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins in 2024. Trader consensus at 93 percent for the Republican nominee reflects this combination of incumbency advantage, favorable partisan baseline, and absence of recent polling or campaign developments indicating a competitive contest. Late-cycle developments such as health concerns for the 84-year-old Carter or an unforeseen national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de TX-31
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de TX-31
$45,379 Vol.
$45,379 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
8%
$45,379 Vol.
$45,379 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$24,918 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$20,461 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination in March 2026 with nearly 60 percent of the primary vote in Texas’s 31st congressional district, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in Williamson County exurbs north of Austin and extending to military communities near Fort Hood, and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a constituency that supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins in 2024. Trader consensus at 93 percent for the Republican nominee reflects this combination of incumbency advantage, favorable partisan baseline, and absence of recent polling or campaign developments indicating a competitive contest. Late-cycle developments such as health concerns for the 84-year-old Carter or an unforeseen national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$45,379Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination in March 2026 with nearly 60 percent of the primary vote in Texas’s 31st congressional district, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in Williamson County exurbs north of Austin and extending to military communities near Fort Hood, and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a constituency that supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins in 2024. Trader consensus at 93 percent for the Republican nominee reflects this combination of incumbency advantage, favorable partisan baseline, and absence of recent polling or campaign developments indicating a competitive contest. Late-cycle developments such as health concerns for the 84-year-old Carter or an unforeseen national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$45,379Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent John Carter secured the GOP nomination in March 2026 with nearly 60 percent of the primary vote in Texas’s 31st congressional district, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. The district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in Williamson County exurbs north of Austin and extending to military communities near Fort Hood, and all major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Justin Early advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a constituency that supported Republican presidential and Senate candidates by double-digit margins in 2024. Trader consensus at 93 percent for the Republican nominee reflects this combination of incumbency advantage, favorable partisan baseline, and absence of recent polling or campaign developments indicating a competitive contest. Late-cycle developments such as health concerns for the 84-year-old Carter or an unforeseen national political shift remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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